The Improbability Scale

Improbability Filtering for Rejecting False Positives

In this paper we describe a novel approach, called improbability filtering, to rejecting false-positive observations from degrading the tracking performance of an Extended Kalman-Bucy fdter. False-positives, incorrect observations reported with a high confidence, are a form of non-Gaussian white noise and therefore degrade the tracking performance of an Extended Kalman-Bucy Filter. Improbabilit...

Improbability of selection for RIF resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis by accidental exposure during short-course therapy with Cotrifazid.

A brief history of the SEM journal(s): staunchly resisting improbability. I. From 1947 to 1997.

Playing Fast and Loose with Complexity: A Critique of Dawkins' Atheistic Argument from Improbability

This paper is a critique of Richard Dawkins’ “argument from improbability” against the existence of God. This argument, which forms the core of Dawkins’ book The God Delusion, provides an interesting example of the use of scientific ideas in arguments about religion. Here I raise three objections: (1) The argument is inapplicable to philosophical conceptions of God that reduce most of God’s com...

Improbable predictions at capital sentencing: contrasting prison violence outcomes.

The postconviction prison disciplinary records of capital defendants (n = 73) who had been the subject of defense-sponsored violence risk assessments or risk-related testimony (1995-2007) that asserted an improbability of future serious prison violence were analyzed. During postconviction prison tenures averaging 4.4 years, none of the capital defendants was cited for accomplished serious assau...